The WorkSTEPS team continues to carefully track what is happening with the COVID-19 pandemic.
A Message on COVID-19 from WorkSTEPS Chief Medical Officer Dr. Ben Hoffman:
While some areas of our country are in the thick of the battle with Covid-19, acting in all urgency and with great heroism to manage patient loads that are at or beyond their breaking point, much of the rest of the country is beginning to think and talk about what happens next. Two key questions frame those discussions:
We are fielding a lot of these sorts of questions and admit that we don’t yet have clear answers. However, I think there is value in sharing how we’re processing new information with an eye toward what happens next.
The figure below is a high-level framework for thinking about the relationships between: A) the quality of data-driven insights about Covid-19; B) the capacity of our systems to care for those who become critically ill; and C) the status of our public and private discourse and actions meant to lead us to a new normal. Of note:
What we will be striving to understand (and share) in the days and weeks ahead is how these relationships play out geographically and demographically, and what the relationships imply for corporate strategy. In the meantime, this edition of our Brief includes several items that demonstrate how better data is leading to clearer ways of thinking about when and how we can move toward a new normal.
Please share your feedback on the figure above. We hope it’s helpful and we’re eager to improve it.
Doubling time of deaths in the US is approximately 3 days.
Based upon available information to date, those at high-risk for severe illness from COVID-19 include:
The overall case-fatality rate in Italy (7.2%) is substantially higher than in China (2.3%). When data were stratified by age group, the case-fatality rate in Italy and China appear very similar for age groups 0 to 69 years, but rates are higher in Italy among individuals aged 70 years or older, and in particular among those aged 80 years or older. The distribution of cases is very different in the 2 countries: individuals aged 70 years or older represent 37.6% of cases in Italy and only 11.9% in China.
The difference is found in three factors:
Additional investigation by the CDC to determine the reason for the high transmission rate on cruise ships identified the COVID-19 Virus on cabin surfaces, prior to disinfection, for 17 days. This does not identify the virus as being viable for transmission; further study is warranted. A recently published article in the New England Journal of Medicine concluded viable COVID-19 virus only persist for 8hrs on most surfaces, and 72 hours on stainless steel.
Concerns over transmission through the mail prompted the USPS to release the following:
The Food and Drug Administration has approved using plasma from Covid-19 survivors to treat some severe cases of COVID-19. Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York says the state will be the first to test a serum developed from recovered patients.
India is coping with the pandemic by locking down the country and its 1.3 billion people, nearly a fifth of humanity, in the largest quarantine to date.
Kinsa, a smart thermometer manufacturer, tracks 'flu-like illness’ in real time data by fever. They then use the data to map the flu season. They have been doing this for years by tracking the use of their thermometers and mobile apps (which mine the data from users). Their data is exceptional, and given COVID-19 has a high rate of fever they have unintentionally tracked the spread of the disease. Their data shows that mitigation measures have changed the trajectory of COVID-19, decreasing the incidence of fever compared to the previous few weeks.
President Trump’s announcement to not extend the restrictions imposed on the American population past Easter have sparked debate on the containment of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The UK Imperial College released a study using predictive models and historical models. They show that the major challenge of suppression is balancing restrictions and will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed.
Providing insight into how restrictions might be implemented over 18 months, a newly released Harvard study suggests social distancing interventions will need to be made multiple times over a period of time, called "intermittent distancing," at intervals that depend upon the state of the health care infrastructure at any moment in time, meaning, how much load it can absorb of critical care cases of the disease.
US lawmakers passed a 2 trillion relief package. The legislation, which is expected to be enacted within days, is the biggest economic relief package in modern American history, dwarfing the $800 billion stimulus bill passed in 2008
The WHO released its new global campaign: “Pass the message: Five steps to kicking out coronavirus - hands, elbow, face, distance, feel”
American Airlines is adapting to the pandemic. In a news release they have begun limiting food and beverage services and blocking 50% of middle seats on all flights.